In this text, I will follow up the rest of the teams, the analyses and odds for these five teams. Finally, I will give you my best bet.

FC Liverpool to win @ 10.00 in odds

Liverpool is always included as one of the favourites, even though they have not managed to win the league since 1989. It has been over 20 years since the reds lifted the league trophy, and is there something that speaks to their advantage this year?

Spontaneously, I would say – no.

Before last season, I really thought that Liverpool would have a chance to fight for the league title. They ended second the year before that and looked stronger then ever before. They had lost one of their key players on the midfield (Xabi Alonso), but even though he had gone to Real Madrid, I gave Liverpool a bet. Before this season they will loose Javier Mascherano and their former manager Rafa Benitez, both has gone to Inter Milan in serie A.

And when Liverpool had their strongest period two years ago it was mostly thanks to their strong midfield with Gerrard – Mascherano – Alonso. Now, two third of that midfield is gone and I cannot imagine that players like Lucas Leiva will fill that gap.

So I don’t give Liverpool that big chances to win Premier League this year, and 10.00 in odds is not worth thinking on. No bet on Liverpool is my advice.

FC Arsenal to win @ 7.00 in odds

Arsenal is a tricky team. You never know where you have Arsene Wenger and you never know how the younger players will perform. If everything goes Arsenals way they defiantly have a good chance to win the league trophy, but their problem has been many injuries lately.

Last year Arsenals young team hung on in the league race for a long time and that was surprising since I did not believed in them before the season, not at all. I believe that Arsenals destiny, very much, lays in Cesc Fabregas hands. That story does not seem to get any resolution and before I know where Fabregas will play next season I have find it hard pronounce my opinion regarding Arsenal 2010 / 2011. But speculations is at the same time a fact that is involved in gambling and I have to start from how it looks today. Therefore, I give Arsenal an “okey” chance to go all the way.

Manchester City to win @ 5.50 in odds

Manchester City is probably the most interesting team this year. Last year, when they had bought many new players it seemed that none of the players/managers/betting experts took them seriously. However, this year it is different. They changed Manager after about half the season last year and sacked Mark Hughes. Roberto Mancini replaced him and Manchester City’s second half of the league was strong.  During the silly season, City has kept buying players and I would say that they defiantly have one of the strongest squads in Premier League this year. Let me give you some names that Mancini has at his disposal: Shay Given, Micah Richards, Joleon Lescott, Nigel de Jong, Yaya Toure, Shaun Wright-Phillips, Gareth Barry, Carlos Tevez, Robinho, Emmanuel Adebayor and so on…

I count with Manchester City in the top of the league this year, and the fact that they do not have to play in the Champions League, compared to their main rivals gives them a plus. 5.50 in odds is worth thinking about regarding a bettingtips on Manchester City as League winners.

Manchester United to win @ 3.60 in odds

Manchester United is always Manchester United and they are always seen as one of the favourites in this league. And why Shouldn’t they? They have the most successful record and most successful manager in whole Premier League.

Many experts wondered how it would go to Manchester United after they sold Christiano Rolando before last season. Nevertheless, Wayne Rooney took an even bigger responsibility and grows up to the world-class player that he is. Manchester United finished second last year, just after Chelsea and I am sure that they want their revenge this year. However, the question is if their younger players can become the great players that Ferguson wants them to become. For example, I think that players like Rafael, Nani, Andersson and so on must take a step forward now when Scholes, Giggs, Neville etc is becoming older. I think they will, and I think that Man United has great chances to win Premier League. But the question is if 3.60 in odds is valuable to bet on.

FC Chelsea to win @ 2.50 in odds

Chelsea is defending champions and the team that everyone will be chasing. There are not too many changes in Chelsea’s squad compared to last year, but the question is how motivated manager Angelotti can make them. The league is 38 matches and every point is important. At the same time Chelsea, and Abrahmovic, probably want to lift the Champions League trophy that he has had his eyes on since he took over as owner.

Chelsea pays 2.50 in odds for winner, but I do not find that valuable to bet on. Chelsea might bee one of the biggest favourites in Premier League this season but I cannot motivate that they should be this big favourites.

My bettingtips on the Premier League winner 2010 / 2011:

Manchester City @ 5.50 in odds – that is the team that I find most valuable to bet on this season. They have a strong team and if Mancini manages to keep all the star players to stay together as a team they have great chances to win. Manchester City pays 5.50 in odds and they get my bet.

The odds is picked from bwin premier league betting.

Good luck with your premier league betting

/Amrish

It is time for quarterfinals in the World Cup 2010 in South Africa and now it the interesting part begins.  Eight teams left and the team that wins their next three games will win the World Cup.

So far, this has been South Americas World Cup and they have four teams left out of totally eight. In these two texts I will give you my best bettingtips in the first two matches that is going to be played on Friday between Holland vs. Brazil and Uruguay vs. Ghana.

I will give you the best 1-x-2 tips and then some special bets from each of the matches, starting with Holland vs. Brazil (the odds are picked from bwin sportsbetting odds):

Holland vs. Brasil, odds: Holland to win 3.75, draw 3.45, Brazil to win 1.95

My bettingtips: Draw @ 3.75 in odds

I can agree with bwin that Brazil is favourites in this game, but according to me, they have become way to big favourites in this game. Both Brazil and Holland has impressed a lot on me so far in the championship and 1.95 in odds on Brazil to win during ordinary time doesn’t seem valuable to bet on.

None of these teams has lost in the World Cup so far and both of the teams has impressed with a strong defence.  Neither Brazil nor Holland normally plays with two defensive midfielders but in this tournament both the teams has chosen that solution.

After that, Dunga took over as manager for the Brazilian team they have played more tactical then before and lots of Brazilians are critical for their tactic. But at the same time I don’t think they have a reason to do that since they won both the South American championship and the Confederations Cup last year.

Holland has been well known as the country that plays “total football” which means all of attack and lots of players that runs towards the opponents goal. Anyway, even though they have made it well most of the times they haven’t been able to win any trophy’s at the end when it comes to the final games.

Therefore, this year, even Holland’s manager has chosen to play with two central defensive players in front of their defenders and I have to say that I am impressed of their balanced and focused way of playing. And this is the reason why I think that they can go far in this tourney.

Brazil pays under 2 in odds and I don’t think that they should be that big favourites since Holland have lots of world class players that can make it difficult for the Brazilian attackers. And in the offence I would say that Hollands attacking players (Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder, Robin Van Persie, Rafal Van der Vaart and Dirk Kuyt) are just as good as Brazils attacking players (Robinho, Luis Fabiano, Kaka). Brazil often plays with their wingers high up, putting pressure on their opponents high up. However, with Arjen Robben and Dirk Kuyt on the other side they might get some problems with their counter attacks.

That is why I do not think that Brazil is worth betting on in this game, but draw or a win on Holland is more interesting. I choose to bet on draw here which pays 3.45 in odds and that is interesting according to me.

Uruguay vs. Ghana, odds: Uruguay to win 1.95, draw 3.15, Ghana to win 4.00

My bettingtips: Draw @ 3.15 in odds

I choose to bet on the draw in this game as well. This time I also think even more of a draw than in the previous match. Both Ghana and Uruguay are two strong defensive teams and have done it very well so far in the World cup.

Uruguay is just as big favourites in this game as Brazil are in the first quarterfinal. I think that Ghana will give them a tough battle. Ghana is the last team left from whole Africa in this tournament and that means that whole Africa is behind them in their further adventures in the championship. I am very sure that Ghana will have most of the support from the crowd and that will give them an extra energy boost in this quarterfinal.

An African team has never gone to a semi-final World cup and this time Ghana has a great chance to be the first team ever to reach that far. Senegal (2002) and Cameroon (1990) are the only two teams that have made it to the quarterfinal earlier.

Both these teams have solid defence and a couple of key-players in the offence that will try to win the game for their nation. Uruguay has Diego Forlan (Atletico Madrid) and Luiz Suarez (Ajax) and Ghanas biggest star is Asamoah Gyan (Udinese) after that Michael Essien got is injury.

My feeling is that a draw is a very likely outcome of this game so that is my bettingtips in this game. After that, anything can happen. You can bet draw to 3.15 in odds at bwin and I will give that a try.

More special bets will be presented in the next text for these two matches.

You have my analyze and bettingtips for 1-x-2 in the first two quarterfinals. Now I will do my best to give you some winning bettingtips for the additional bets that bwin world cup betting offers. There are about 315 betting opportunities in the World cup quarterfinals that bwin offers so go in to their website and see if you can find anything else that seems interesting for you.

Holland vs. Brazil:

Team to go trough – odds: Holland to go trough, odds 2.75 – Brazil to go trough, odds 1.42

My bettingtips – Holland to go trough @ 2.75 in odds

As I wrote above, I think that Brazil is to big favourites to bet on. In addition, in this bet I think that it is even more obvious. This bet means that I bet on Holland to go trough. It does not matter if they win during 90 minutes; win after extra time of even after Penalties. They just have to go to the semi-finals for me to win on my bettingtips.

Since I think that it is much more even between the teams then the odds says, I think that this is a really good bet.

Holland have won all their four matches until now and they have done it in an impressing way. In their first game they beat Denmark with 2 – 0. In that game they had several chances to score more then twice but they seemed satisfied anyway. After that they beat Japan with 1 – 0 and in their last game they won against Cameroon with 2 – 1 even though they actually didn’t have to win to win their group.

And in the first knock-out game Holland beat Slovakia with 2 – 1 after a late goal from Slovakia on penalty. So Holland has never been really threatened in this championship so far. Brazil have three wins and one draw so far but it’s actually only against Chilli, in the last game, that they showed that they can play attractive football. I think that 2.75 in odds on Holland to go to the semi-finals feels very interesting and with a great odds-value, so that’s my first pick.

Over / Under 1,5 goals after first half – Over 1,5 goals, odds 3.10 – Under 1,5 goals, odds 1.33

My bettingtips: Under 1,5 goals in first half @ 1.33 in odds

My feeling is that this game will start in a slow tempo. Both of the teams respect each other’s and that is why I do not think that there will be too many goals in the first half. For my bet, I win if the first half ends with zero or one goal.

In most of the games so far in the World cup is hasn’t been scored more then 1 goal in first half and this is the kind of match where I think that will be standing 0 – 0 for a while. Holland made both their goals against Denmark in the second half and even their goal against Japan came in the second half. Against Cameroon they only had 1 – 0 in half time and the same against Slovakia. So all Holland’s four matches has been under 1,5 goals after the first half.

Regarding Brazil they had 0 – 0 against North Korea in half time, 1 – 0 against Ivory coast and in their last group match they played 0 – 0 against Portugal. It was only against Chilli that they had 2 – 0 in half time.

So in totally eight games that these teams has played so far only in one match it has been scored more then 1 goal in the first half. Now, when it comes to a tight and tough quarterfinal, I think that the probability to be under 1,5 goals in half time is bigger than 1.33 that is the odds. So I have a strong feeling that this is a good bettingtips even though it might feel like a low odds.

Uruguay vs. Ghana

Over / Under 2,5 goals in the match – Odds: over 2,5 goals, odds: 2.45 – Under 2,5 goals, odds: 1.48

My bettingtips: Under 2,5 goals @ 1.48 in odds

I do not think that their will be too many of goals in this game. Both the teams have strong defences. In Uruguay’s there games in their group games they did not let any goals in. Their first goal against them came in the second round when South Korea finally managed to score one goal on Uruguay.

Ghana has indeed let some goals in behind their goalie Kingson but they still have showed that they have a strong defence as well. With that in mind, I feel that there is big opportunity that this game will end with two goals or less after ordinary time (90 min).

If feels strange to see that as an opportunity, but in the betting world right can be wrong and a defensive game with few goals can mean win. Under 2,5 goals pays 1.48 in odds at bwin sportsbetting and I think that 0 – 0 or 1 – 1 are the most likely results here. If any of the teams win the game I do not think that it will be with more then 1 – 0 / 0 – 1.

Good Luck with your world cup betting

/Amrish

The way that the betting exchanges tout their product is that it is matched betting and that you are pitting your opinion against that of someone else. So it is your knowledge of sport or a sporting event or person against that of someone else. In a sort of loose fitting way then this is true. However the vast amount of liquidity on the exchanges these days is stemming from outside institutions, bookmakers and traders.

Skilled financial day traders have an edge on the exchanges because they are trained in their profession. But yet as a punter then you really shouldn’t be taking these people head on anyway. As a rule then the bookmakers use exchanges to hedge their own offline betting activities but they also back and lay for other reasons as well. However there are many institutions who are operating on the exchanges so you never really get access to individual money in the way that it is touted because the money is pooled.

However there are ways to circumvent this problem and trader and institutional activity may account for a large amount of liquidity in certain markets. But traders rarely understand tissue prices and what represents value and are mainly operating around their own individual strategies. What this means is that betting prices often oscillate either side of what are optimum pricing levels.

So it is possible to find very good value on the betting exchanges but it takes patience to wait and a good tissue price at hand that has a proven track record of accuracy within a few percentage points. The older strategies of using weight of money indicators have long since been dead in the water and I never really thought that they would work anyway as they were too well known. Trying to ascertain short term market movement is difficult because there is a tremendous amount of short term noise and manipulation of the markets from some very powerful sources.

However there is a difference between short term movement and longer term movement as in my opinion, it is easier to find longer term movement than short term movement on the exchanges these days. The bigger markets of Horse Racing and football are where the greatest liquidity is found and this is where the greatest outside influences can be found. In my view then it is important to elongate the trading process so that you can get away from traders and institutions who are driving prices in a certain direction based on their own short term strategies. It then becomes very hard to predict when and how far these people will drive the price short term and trying to follow them becomes difficult.

So one of the keys to making money on the exchanges is to highlight who you are going up against and what they are doing. If you can do that and then get your hands on a good tissue that accurately assesses true chances of winning then that is a very good start.

It is time for the finest match of them all – final in Champions League 2009 / 2010.

The final is going to be played in Madrid, Spain, Saturday 22 May between Inter Milan from Italy and Bayern München from Germany.

Neither Bayern München nor FC Inter Milan was one of the favourites to reach this final compared to the experts’ bettingtips and favourites according to the odds before this season. However, after have seen both this teams in the play off round I do not think any one can say that these teams do not deserve a place in the finals.

Bayern München has for example beaten Lyon, Manchester United and Inter Milan has knocked both Chelsea and Barcelona out from the tournament. Besides, to be honest, none of these teams has to apologise for any of these knockouts either.

As Usual, when it comes to big finals, the betting companies are loaded with different betting opportunities for this game. I can’t write out all the different bets that the companies has put out but bwin for example has 57 different bets out on the market all ready and my guess is that this number will increase even more as closer to the final we reach. In these two texts, I will give you all my best bettingtips for the Champions League final and the analysis why I chose to bet on the odds that I recommend. Of course, I will not bet on all the different betting choices that bwin have on the market but I will try to cover a few of them, just to give you the extra excitement for the final:

Here is the first bettingtips (odds from bwin bettingtips), Bayern München vs. Inter Milan, 1-x-2:

Bayern München win: 2.80 in odds, draw: 3.25 in odds Inter Milan to win: 2.40 in odds

My bettingtips: Inter Milan to win @ 2.40 in odds

First, I will of course give you my view on how I think this game will end. To be honest I am a bit surprised that Inter Milan pays as high as 2.40 in odds in this final. I do not have anything to say about the fact that the betting companies holds Inter Milan as favourites but my expectations where that they was going to pay about 2.10 – 2.20 in odds.

Before this tournament there where three big favourite teams in Champions League; FC Chelsea, FC Barcelona and Real Madrid. Inter Milan has beaten two out of these three (Chelsea and Barcelona) and have done it very well according to me. In the 1/8-final they beat Chelsea both home and away (2 – 1 at home and 0 – 1 away). Against Barcelona in the semi finals they won with 3 – 1 home at Giuseppe Meazza and lost with 1 – 0 away. In addition, the fact is that that Barcelona played with one man more in 60 minutes in the return home at Camp Nou but only got one goal in the 84^th minute. Tiago Motta on Inter Milan’s midfield was the one that was sent out in the second semi-final against Barcelona and will miss the final in Madrid.

Bayern München had a bit easier way to the final, without compromising their performance in any way. If Inter Milan knocked out two strong teams on their way to the finals, Bayern M knocked out one good team – Manchester United, and this came after a red card on Rafael in the second quarterfinal. Because to be honest (one more time) they where a bit lucky in that game. Manchester United had 3 – 0 after 20 minutes and it never looked like a turnaround could come. However, some how the German machine rose once again and managed to score two goals, which took them, further in Champions League. If I summarize both teams’ efforts so far in the tournament, I feel that Inter Milan should have an advantage in this final. According to me they have a stronger team with more key players (such as Samuel Etoó, Diego Milito, wesley sneijder, Mario Balotelli, Goran Pandev and so on) that can be the deferens in a tight game like this.

Another fact that cannot be forgotten in this type of matches is the importance of the managers. I hold Jose Mourinho as one of the best coaches in cup matches like this. I think that he is a bit sharper then Louis Van Gaal when it comes to tactical knowledge in crucial moments.

The last fact why I chose to bet on Inter is that Bayern München has their best player, Franck Ribery, suspended in this vital game and that is a big loss for the Germans. Ribery, Together with Arjen Robben, has been their most important players during this season and the fact that Ribery cannot play can be devastating for B München. When I put together all these arguments, I find it easy to choose which team to bet on in this big game. The odds, 2.40, on Inter Milan to win during ordinary time sound good for me so I start with that bettingtips.

That was my overall thoughts on the match and its outcome. The next text I thought to share with you of my best Special bet.

In this text I will focus on the special bets that bwin offers. There are way more bets to choose from then the once that I pick my bettingtips from so please visit this site to get more champions league betting odds and see if you can find more interesting odds your self’s.

How many scores to be scored in the game, over/under 2,5 goals:

Over 2,5 goals, odds: 2.10 and Under 2,5 goals, odds: 1.65

My bettingtips: Under 2,5 goals @ 1.65 in odds

This bet means that it cannot be more then two goals to win during ordinary time.

All big finals have a tendency to become a bit tight, and my feeling is that this can be tighter then most of the finals lately. Both teams build their game plan on solid defensive and tight midfield that means that this can be a battle of the midfield.

When two so defensively talented and decapitated teams stand on each side of the ground that rarely misses in their position marks, I cannot see another outcome here then few goals. Both managers are very strict in their preparations before such games and if any team will score, I still think that we will have a tight match. So I think that under 2,5 goals @ 1.65 in odds is a good bet.

Correct score, bettingtips: 0 – 2 for Inter Milan @ 9.50 in odds

My feeling is that Inter Milan will win this game finally after a tight start and I even think that this will be a tight game with few goals totally. I have been wondering if 0 – 1 or 0 – 2 for Inter Milan is the best bettingtips. After have comparing and valuating these two odds, I have chosen to go for 0 – 2 for Inter Milan. If anyone wants to try both these results 0 – 1 pays 6.50 in odds. The reason why I chose 0 – 2 is that the differens in these two odds is to big and that the odds value becomes better in my result, a fact that you should keep in mind when you pick your bet.

My feeling is that the game will be opened in slower tempo where both the teams are testing their opponents and their strengths. Since I evaluated that Inter Milan has is stronger team with more individually more skilled players. I even think that Inter Milan will score the first goal somewhere in the middle third of the game (meaning in-between match minute 30 – 60). Then it remains to see if they can score the second one as well. I bet on 0 – 2 since Bayern München probably will go forward if they are one down which will open up for counter attacks for Inter Milan and their fast attacking players, Samuel Etoó, Mario Balotelli and Diego Milito.

I find the odds 9.50 interesting for a two – zero win for Inter Milan and that is my bettingtips for the result in this game.

Bayern München vs. Inter Milan, Both teams to Score?

Yes: odds 1.91 and No: odds 1.80

Bettingtips: No @ 1.80 in odds

As I have written several times above even this bet fits my theory that this will be a tight and tough game with few goals. The bet means that I win if both teams do not score in the game during ordinary time. The reason that I think that this is a good bet is that the betting company, bwin, has chosen to keep both this odds pretty even between “yes” and “no” here. My feeling is that both teams to score – NO should be a bit more in favour then it has become.

I hope that the standings at half time will be 0 – 0 or maybe 0 – 1 for Inter Milan and that’s even the standing that I believe it will be. Earlier I have mentioned lots of Inter Milan’s attacking players and midfielders. However, they even have one of the strongest defences right at the moment. With central defenders such as Ivan Cordoba and Lucio (who by the way played in Bayern München as soon as last season) and with one of the best goalkeepers in the world, Julio Cesar, at the moment Bayern will have to play really good in their attacking play to score. Even beside Ivan Cordoba and Lucio Inter Milan have some opportunities like Christian Chivo, Walter Samuel and Marco Materazzi. And on the wing they have Javier Zanetti and Douglas Maicon.

At the same time Bayern München have some great defensive players like David Demichelis,  Philipp Lahm and Daniel Van Buyten (who I personally don’t like that much, but he has shown his better side in this years Champions League)

And with Jose Mourinho’s perfect way to coach in defensive set pieces and how to mark their opponents with well studied knowledge I think that at least one of the teams will leave Madrid without have scoring. Since I think that Louis Van Gaal have good defensive feeling as well I think that 1.80 in odds feels okay to bet on.

Good Luck with your Champions League betting

/Amrish

The Winter Olympics starts in some days and I have been looking forward to this happening for a long time. 2010 is a great year over all with Winter Olympics, World Cup in football and the fantastic exciting Champions League, European Cup, Premier League and everything else that is going to been played in between that.

In this text I will start with my first bettingtips from the Olympic Games from Vancouver witch starts on Saturday the 12^th of February. I will be back with more bettingtips from other events such as Biathlon, alpine skiing, Cross-country and so on. But in this text I will give you my analysis for the ice hockey tournament.

Before I give you my best bet I want to present to odds for you so you can see if you find any other interesting bet compared to my analyse.

Here are the odds for all teams for Olympics Ice Hockey. All the odds are from bwin Olympic Game betting:

To win Gold in Olympic Games in Ice hockey:

Canada, odds: 2.10

Russia, odds: 3.05

Sweden, odds: 6.50

USA, odds: 9.00

Czech Republic, odds: 18.00

Finland, odds: 21.00

Slovakia, odds: 51.00

Switzerland, odds: 201.00

Belarus, odds: 501.00

Germany, odds: 501.00

Latvia, odds: 501.00

Norway, odds: 1001.00

I have chosen to split the teams into three “groups”; A, B and C where group A and B have a potential opportunity to win the gold:

Group A:

Canada, Russia and Sweden

Group B:

USA, Czech Repiblic, Finland and Slovakia

Group C:

Switzerland, Belarus, Germany, Latvia and Norway

My bettingtips:

Sweden to win gold medal to 6.50 at odds.

As I see this Canada shall be favourites to take the gold medal at their own home ice. The Canadian fans are fanatic and they have the best team in the world as well. But I would never bet on them to 2.10 in odds. I can’t find any value on the odds since it even means that their chance to win gold should be about 48 % to be a value bet.

There are so many great teams in this tourney and I just can’t see the Canadian team win every other gold. Even Russia is a bit too big favourites according to me with only 3.10 in odds. Both Russia and Canada are normally the two best teams in the world at the moment, I don’t disagree with that. But I don’t find the Swedish team that far behind either Canada or Russia and find the odds at 6.50 on a Swedish gold very interesting.

Behind there three teams I find Team America and Finland as the biggest challengers to win the gold medal. Many experts has been warning for especially the American team and that they are a potential underdog in this tourney and even though I have big respect for them this year I can’t see that they can go all the way to the gold.

If you ask me I am more afraid of Finland from the teams in my Group B. They have a solid team and a good combination of older, more experienced, and younger and hungry players. And Finland is one of few teams that can play as tough as Canada when it comes to toughness. The reason that I don’t see Finland as a winner of this tournament is that they have way less key-players then Sweden, Canada or Russia. And according to me an Olympic gold candidate has to have more players that single handed can win games for their side.

Behind these teams Czech Republic and Slovakia can go whole the way to the gold if everything goes their way, but my feeling is that both these teams are weaker then some years ago. If the older players can perform at their top and everything goes their way they can reach semi-finals as best. But still I have to mention them as potential winners since they have many players in NHL.

But my bettingtips goes to Sweden and that’s not only because I am a Swede myself. But I find the odds on Swedish gold very interesting and with top-class players on every position. Some examples are:

Goal keeper: Henrik Lundqvist, one of the best goal keepers in NHL, playing for New York Rangers.

Defenders: Nicklas Lidstrom, one of the best defenders in NHL with lots of trophy’s and awards with Detroit Redwings. Mattias Ohlund, Douglas Murray, Johnny Oduya and Niklas Kronwall. All of them playing in National Hockey League and doing very well.

Forwards: Henrik Zetterberg, Daniel and Henrik Sedins, Nicklas Backstrom, Danial Alfredsson, Peter Forsberg, Tomas Homstrom, Samuel Palhsson (and some other interesting forwards).

Almost all of Sweden’s forwards are playing as key-players in different NHL clubs. The only question mark at the moment is Peter Forsberg. He has been playing home in the Swedish league this season after some injuries. But when he has been able to play he has still showed that he still is one of the best players in the world. And both Zetterberg and the Sedin brothers are some of the best players in NHL. So 6.50 in odds for a bet on Sweden really feel exciting and that my bet as winner of the Gold medal in the Olympic Games 2010.

/Best Regards

Amrish

This weekend is a FA-cup weekend in England and that means cup games. All the big teams (from Premier League) go in to the cup in this round, the third. I will give you my best betting tips from the Sunday’s games.

After an interesting round yesterday, the weather seams a bit better today. That gives us better and fairer conditions with our bet and odds. Five games will be played on Sunday and I will give you my analysis for each one of them. Therefore I have chosen to split this text into two parts starting with the first two games in the first text, followed by the last three games I the next one to make them a bit shorter and easier to read. Actually it was supposed to be six games today, but Notts County vs Forest Green Rovers is postp. Here are the FA-cup odds from bwin-football-odds:

Manchester United 1.20   draw 6.00   Leeds United 10.00

FC Chelsea 1.12   draw   7.00 Watford  15.00

West Ham United 5.25   draw 3.75  FC Arsenal 1.60

Sheffield United 2.05   draw 3.30   Queens Park Rangers 3.20

Tranmere Rovers 4.45   draw 3.45   Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.70

And here are my best picks from the odds above:

Manchester United vs. Leeds United, home win @ 1.20

I see Manchester United as big favourites in this game and even though the odds might seem a bit low I think that this is a valuable bet with 20 % payback. First of all it’s a big deferens for the bigger teams if you compare FA-cup with the Carlings cup (former league cup). The FA-cup is more prestigious and the manager often plays with a better squad then they might to in the Carlings cup.

There are some examples of teams that don’t rotate that much no matter if it is Carlings cup or FA-cup. Tottenham, Manchester City and maybe even Chelsea are some of these examples. But managers like Sir Alex Furgeson (Manchester United), Rafa Benitez (Liverpool) and Arsene Wenger (Arsenal) rotates a lot in Carlings cup since they feel that they have more important games coming and want to rest most of the best players in that, less prestigious, tournament. One of the reasons might be that these teams have been fighting for so many different titles and cups for so long time that they have realized that some of the trophies have to be sacrificed for the bigger once.

But the FA-cup is a “big trophy” to win and all of the bigger teams from Premier League play with better start-up-lines here. And with that in your mind I would say that I am pretty sure that Manchester United will win this game home at theatre of dreams. Because I just can’t see them loosing, and I can’t even see that Sir Alex Ferguson wants any unnecessary rematches at this moment of the season, especially not against a team like Leeds. And that why I think that 1.20 might bee an “okay” odds to bet on event though I normally try to avoid these kinds of odds.

Here are some facts about this clubs season so far:

Manchester United is placed at the top of Barclays Premier League, only two points after Chelsea with 14 wins in 20 games. In their last league game they won with crushing 5 – 0 against Wigan at home and more and more United-players are recovering from their former injuries; witch gives Sir Alex more opportunities to elaborate with this squad again.

Leeds is in top of League 1 (two series below Premier League) and they are on their way up to the championship. I would be surprised if they won’t make it this year, but it’s still a long way up to the Premier League. I am pretty sure that Manchester United wins this game how ever Sir Alex Ferguson chooses to start in this game. That’s why Manchester United is my first bet.

Chelsea vs. Watford, home win @ 1.12

Normally it feels ridiculous to bet on odds like this. I wrote it in the game above and say that again. But when it comes to FA-cup matches it feels that it’s a different kind of thinking.

If I was pretty sure that Manchester United was going to beat Leeds I am even surer that Chelsea will win this game, against Watford, home at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea has one problem for the coming time, and that’s the Africa’s cup of nations. Key-players as Didier Drogba, Salomon Kalou (even though he’s not a key player he would be a god substitute during this tournament) and Michael Essien (defiantly a key player) is missing. They are representing their home countries and since the World cup is waiting in half a year this years Africa’s cup of nations is more important then ever before.

I am pretty sure that Chelsea is going to miss these players later, but in this game they won’t have any troubles beating Watford. As I mentioned before, Chelsea is in top of Premier League, just ahead of Manchester United and Arsenal. Watford lays in the bottom half of championship and will probably fight to avoid relegation in first hand this year.

I am sure that Chelsea will win this game and 1.12 might not be a valuable bet, but it’s a sure pick if you like those.

In the next text I give you my best picks from the rest of the matches that will be played today.

Good luck with your bet

/Amrish

Manchester United and Chelsea felt pretty sure as winners in the text above. I simply just can’t see how any of them can loose or draw today. Now I will give you my best odds from the rest of the games that is played today:

West Ham vs. Arsenal – draw @ 3.60

This is the biggest game of the day. It’s not only a FA-cup game between two Premier League teams, but even a London-derby.

And the fact that West Ham has started their climb in the league table makes it even more interesting. I saw their last game before New Year home against Chelsea and they really played well in that game. If the football world would be a fair world they even should had win that game since Chelsea (like many times this year) got a ridiculously easy penalty while West Ham deserved more then the penalty that they got. But that is, unfortunately, the advantage of being a top team.

But even without the penalty “Hammers” where the better side and I was impressed by them. I have felt that West Ham deserves more points then they have taken this season. But after their point against Chelsea and win against Portsmouth at home (when they did a strong game once again) I feel that Gianfranco Zola’s spring can be a good finish.

Arsenal has had lots of injuries through out the season. Now it looks a bit brighter for them, but since it is the Africa’s cup of nations some players will be missing anyway the nearest weeks. But even though Arsenal has had problems with injuries and that most of the experts didn’t thought that they would be able to fight in the top of the league, they are in the title race. At the moment Arsenal is on the third place in the league, but only four points behind of Chelsea. And since they have one match less played then Chelsea and Manchester United they have the chance to be only one single point behind them if they win that game.

But I think that the odds is to low in this game to bet on Arsenal today. They only pay 1.60 and since Arsene Wenger has been forced to rotate a lot I am not so sure how he will play in this game. Normally Wenger plays only reserves in Carlings cup, all of them and all the way in that cup. And then he often mixes some of the ordinary players with the best youth players that he has in the beginning of the FA-cup. And of course he plays the best possible team in Champions League and Premier League.

But since he has had so many players unavailable  in this season he might rest some of the key players in this game. And since Arsenal is fighting in the top of the league for the first time in several years as well that’s another reason that he might rest some of the best players in this game.

But no matter what I don’t think that 1.60 in odds on an away win against West Ham with a strong form is worth betting on. I would rather gamble and bet on the draw for 3.60 in odds.

West Ham is also in a tough situation in the league. They are standing just above the relegation mark at the moment, but Bolton (just under the relegation mark) has played two games less then “Hammers”. I would be very surprised if West Ham will be relegated when it is time to summarize this season. They have a stronger squad and a better game plan then most of the teams in the bottom region of the table. But since they haven’t taken as many points that they deserve it has led to a tough situation. Even though this is their only chance to play in Europe next year it’s a long way to that. And if I where West Ham’s manager I would probably rest some of the most tiered players in this game. Since there are lots of question marks from my side I would probably recommend to not betting in this game at all. But if I would do that it would be the draw to 3.60 in odds.

Sheffield United vs. Queens Park Rangers – Home win @ 2.05

Both this teams plays in Championship and lies on the upper half of the table. Sheffield United are at the seventh place, chasing top 6 witch means that they would get the chance to qualify to Premier League trough the play-off.

QPR is on the tenth place, only two points behind Sheffield U.

The reason that I chose to bet on Sheffield United in this game to 2.05 in odds is that they are a typical cup team. They often go far in both FA-cup and Carlings cup. And that kind of fact should never be underestimated. So 2.05 is a god bet according to me.

Tranmere Rovers vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers – away win @ 1.70

Not a odds that I recommend to bet on, but if I have to chose a side I would go for the Premier League club Wolves. Tranmere is playing two series below Premier League and even though Wolverhampton has had hard to score in their away matches the deferens is big between these two series. And Tranmere is one of the bottom teams in league one, fighting to stay there even next year.

But knowing that the FA-cup often gives us some surprises I recommend to skip this match.

And all the odds are picked from bwin-sportsbetting.

Good luck with your bets

/Amrish

It is often thought with many sophisticated punters that “value” stems from bookmakers who make mistakes regarding what the odds should for a sporting event. So what we seem to have with regards to sports betting is a subculture of punters who go around looking for betting firms to make a mistake with their pricing structure.

In reality this is looking at the picture from the wrong angle. The information networks and professionally compiled tissue prices combine to make the basic default prices quite accurate. In fields like horse racing where gathering theoretically correct tissue prices is basically an impossibility then the problem is even more evident.

But the fact remains that the bookmakers and betting firms are professionals so they have professional contacts. This means that they can arrive at very accurate prices for events and this makes sports betting very profitable for them. But this is where events take a dramatic shift because there is a difference between what odds a betting firm offers and a true theoretical price of these competitors actually winning.

Bookmakers will move odds accordingly to either attract or deter action based largely around the liabilities that they are prepared to accept for each competitor and the need to create a profit. Let us use a rather silly toss of a coin example to highlight what I mean here. A sports betting firm is offering a market on the result of the coin toss in the 1st Ashes Test between England and Australia and goes 1.95 on both England and Australia winning the toss.

Now we both know that the true and fair odds of the toss should be 2.0 or even money in fixed odds terms. But punters do love a gamble and a flood of money comes in on England to win the toss. Even though the price for England winning the toss is less than what it theoretically should be, if enough money is taken then betting firms may look to reduce their liabilities and try to balance their book by taking money on Australia.

So they revise their prices and England are now 1.85 to win the toss and Australia are 2.05. Here the shrewd punter can back Australia to win the toss safe in the knowledge that they are getting 2.05 on a 2.00 chance. Can you see here that the shrewd punter is taking advantage of the situation but they are not taking advantage of a mistake that is being made by the betting firm or bookmaker!

The betting firm knows full well that they are offering greater odds on Australia winning the toss than it actually has of happening. But they are prepared to do it simply because they are trying to balance their books and take some money on the opposite side to try and make money whatever the result. So in this instance then the shrewd sports betting pro is taking advantage of two key factors…..the capacity for mug punters to take poor prices in large quantities and the bookmakers strategy of trying to balance their book.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson