It is often thought with many sophisticated punters that “value” stems from bookmakers who make mistakes regarding what the odds should for a sporting event. So what we seem to have with regards to sports betting is a subculture of punters who go around looking for betting firms to make a mistake with their pricing structure.

In reality this is looking at the picture from the wrong angle. The information networks and professionally compiled tissue prices combine to make the basic default prices quite accurate. In fields like horse racing where gathering theoretically correct tissue prices is basically an impossibility then the problem is even more evident.

But the fact remains that the bookmakers and betting firms are professionals so they have professional contacts. This means that they can arrive at very accurate prices for events and this makes sports betting very profitable for them. But this is where events take a dramatic shift because there is a difference between what odds a betting firm offers and a true theoretical price of these competitors actually winning.

Bookmakers will move odds accordingly to either attract or deter action based largely around the liabilities that they are prepared to accept for each competitor and the need to create a profit. Let us use a rather silly toss of a coin example to highlight what I mean here. A sports betting firm is offering a market on the result of the coin toss in the 1st Ashes Test between England and Australia and goes 1.95 on both England and Australia winning the toss.

Now we both know that the true and fair odds of the toss should be 2.0 or even money in fixed odds terms. But punters do love a gamble and a flood of money comes in on England to win the toss. Even though the price for England winning the toss is less than what it theoretically should be, if enough money is taken then betting firms may look to reduce their liabilities and try to balance their book by taking money on Australia.

So they revise their prices and England are now 1.85 to win the toss and Australia are 2.05. Here the shrewd punter can back Australia to win the toss safe in the knowledge that they are getting 2.05 on a 2.00 chance. Can you see here that the shrewd punter is taking advantage of the situation but they are not taking advantage of a mistake that is being made by the betting firm or bookmaker!

The betting firm knows full well that they are offering greater odds on Australia winning the toss than it actually has of happening. But they are prepared to do it simply because they are trying to balance their books and take some money on the opposite side to try and make money whatever the result. So in this instance then the shrewd sports betting pro is taking advantage of two key factors…..the capacity for mug punters to take poor prices in large quantities and the bookmakers strategy of trying to balance their book.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

The old saying that information is power never more applies than it does to sports betting. At the end of the day, the professional odds compilers base their prices on information and they are some of the best in the business. All prices are underpinned by the information that gets analysed beforehand. Prices are based on other factors too of course.

But often the Internet along with other news sources can be invaluable to any punter who is looking to make money from betting. Unfortunately this is something that cannot be avoided. You must have a very good grasp of odds and probabilities and why you think a particular price is wrong. Quite often you may need to use information in ways that you hadn’t otherwise thought of.

For instance, let us say that Wigan Athletic are at home to Liverpool in a Premier League game on the Saturday. On Monday afternoon Wigan are priced up at 3.50. But there is one huge question mark over this match and this is that there are injury doubts to Steven Gerrard and star striker Fernando Torres. Now it is clear that Liverpool do not perform anywhere near as well when these two players are either absent or not performing well.

So it then may be worth having a pre-emptive bet on Wigan when the news breaks on Monday afternoon that it is possible that both of these players could miss the next game. The fact that this is still in doubt may not do anything to the price but the price of a Wigan victory should be dramatically lower than 3.50 and will be reflected accordingly near kick off time should both these players not figure in the game.

Quite often the high street firms are vulnerable to team news with their fixed odds coupons. Many firms do not alter their prices as their coupons were printed and distributed at the start of the week.

This means that alert punters who are on the ball so to speak with regards up to date team news can be in a great position to exploit this particular situation. These facts and data can sometimes often be found on the actual websites of the clubs themselves.

In fact even at the time of me writing this article, Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres were injured for Liverpool which led to them losing 1-0 at Sunderland in the League and also 2-1 at home to Lyon in the Champions League. The correct theoretical prices of the two teams in both of these matches would have been seriously affected because of the injuries to these two key players.

In fact the number of injuries and to who can be even more pronounced in the lower leagues than it can in the Premier League. This is for the simple reason being that smaller clubs simply do not have the back up of large squads behind them and if you specialise and concentrate on one particular league then you can often find situations in which the absence of key players can be pivotal in how a game plays out.

It only takes the loss of a key player like the club captain or a key defender or keeper and the possible result can alter drastically. So use the power of the internet to try and beat the bookies.

This article was written by Carl “The Dean” Sampson

Everybody’s attention is turned to the SAGA Insurance Masters at Wembley Arena after last month’s UK Championship final in which Shaun Murphy won over Marco Fu 10-9. The SAGA Insurance Masters will take place next week.

As of this moment, Ronnie O’ Sullivan, a three-time champion is the favourite at 3/1. Following the champion is Mark Selby who is a Master champions at present, at 6’s. Maguire is next at 8’s.

From the three, no one seems impressive most especially if base in performance in Telford last month. Thus, next week, no one seems to be backed up by bookies and the like to come out victorious.

Possibly, Carter has the chance at 18/1. The Tiptree potter did pretty fine at the UK with the last four, somehow losing out to Fu 9-7. He will be better. In the last 16, he faces Peter Ebdon whom he had beaten in Telford and at the World Championship. Should he win the tie, he will be up for Joe Perry or even O’Sullivan.

Joe Perry and O’Sullivan are both great opponents however Carter in the first to five format will visualize his chances for sure. No one from the top guns are all out so it is better to make small each way stake over Carter.

On the other hand, to win his quarter-final, youngster Judd Trump is rated a 10/1. In Ryan Day and Selby, he most likely have some tough opposition however there’s little pressure on him just being a wild card entry.

At the event, at 10/1 it looks that the youngster will repeat what he did at the Grand Pix where he had Perry and O’Sullivan beaten to prove his potential and that he can perform at the highest level.

At this stage, the early Cheltenham Festival ante post betting is doing pretty fine and seems to improve and be more appealing with so many bookies putting prices over the races and chief competitors. Significantly, by punting without the present favorites Master Minded and Binocular, both short-priced, Stan James are anticipating to spice up the kinda inactive and blunt Queen Mother Champion Chase and Champion Hurdle markets.

Also, Stan James will try to work on things out by making Voy Por Ustedes (7/2) and Sublimity (6/1) to be their individual leaders in the market. Firm offers 14/1 with regards to Denman’s possible chances of winning in both the Grand National in 2009 Interesting and the Gold Cup. Although Denman is short in the Gold Cup firm won’t consider punting a market without him. This of course is in relation to everybody considering attack or fire till he runs at Newbury in the Aon Chase.

Charlie McCann, Head of PR said, “Master Minded is 1/2 for the Champion Chase after his brilliant comeback success in the Tingle Creek and with Binocular (5/4) unlikely to be seen ahead of the Champion Hurdle we have decided to give punters the alternative of backing without the short-priced favorites in two of the Festival’s Championship races. Voy Por Ustedes is the 7/2 favourite for the Champion Chase without Master Minded although he looks sure to go for the Ryanair Chase and we could be taking a chance with Big Zeb at 5s and Well Chief and 8s. Take Binocular out and the Champion Hurdle is a fascinating market with the 2007 Champion Hurdler Sublimity leading the market at 6/1 and last year’s Champion Katchit, who comes alive at Cheltenham, one of five horses priced at 7/1.”

Although there is no exact date yet for the fight that will engage two great and popular boxers of today, Manny Pacquiao and Ricky Hatton, many are already discussing who is going to win between the two. Will it be Manny Pacquiao or Ricky Hatton?

Most bookies favored Manny Pacquiao who recently defeated the popular “Golden Boy” Oscar De La Hoya. They believe Manny Pacquiao will come out outstanding if ever his fight with Ricky Hatton will be pushed through.

With Ladbrokes, Pacquiao, who in eight months came up three weight classes to fight for his biggest battle, is 4/11 to beat Hatton, with the well known Mancunian available at 2/1.

Spokesman of Ladbrokes Robin Hutchison said, “Pacquiao ended De La Hoya’s career on Saturday night and we fully expect him to end Hatton’s too.”

However with Stan James, there is slight less clear-cut and unclear results, with Pacquiao at 4/9 and Hatton at 13/8. According to Charlie McCann of Stan James, “we think Hatton is the stronger even at light-welterweight and if the fight was to take place at the MEN, City of Manchester Stadium or Wembley then Pacquiao might think he is fighting half of Manchester. Also, for Stan James, Pacquiao is a brilliant boxer and has already proved his worth in the boxing industry but maybe he just met the “Golden Boy” Oscar De La Hoya at the right time. Thus, this may have possibly allowed Pacquiao to go all the way with his punches.

On the other hand, from the records of Sky Bet, Pacquiao is 2/5 while the other, Hatton, is 7/4.

Right now, it is believed that before this year 2009 ends, the fight must already take place at light-welterweight so bets with Stan James stand firm and in countenance.