Champions League round 3 – Group E & F

Champions League is back this week with the third round of the group stage. Two rounds have been played and as usual we have some teams that have gone better then expected and of course even those that have gone worse.

Some examples of teams that have gone worse then expected is Atletico Madrid (1 p), Juventus (2 p), Liverpool (3 ), Inter Milan (2 p) and AZ Alkmaar (1 p). All this teams are of course compared to their opponents in the two first games and even witch expectations I had on them.

This even means that all these teams have lots of pressure on them for coming matches, because if they don’t start to win soon their dream of a play off in Champions League knockout stage will keep being a dream.

In this text I am going to break up the coming matches and concentrate for group E+F, match day is Tuesday for these groups.

Here are the odds for these group matches. I will pick out my best picks and then give you my analyze of the rest of the games to hopefully help you in your search for the best picks.

Debreceni 8.50  draw 4.50 Fiorentina 1.35

Liverpool FC 1.75   draw 3.30   Olympique Lyonnais 4.85

FC Barcelona 1.11  draw   8.00 Rubin Kazan 17.00

Inter Milan 1.40  draw 4.15   Dynamo Kiev 8.00

My best pick from Group E and F:

Liverpool vs. Olympique Lyonnais, home win @ 1.75

Liverpool won against Debreceni with only 1 – 0 in the first game and then lost against Fiorentina, in Florence, with 2 – 0.

These results mean that Liverpool is pretty forced to win this match if they don’t want to put themselves in a tough situation. In next round the games will turn over and same teams will play against but the teams that are playing home will play away. So in next match Liverpool will travel to France to play away against Lyon and if they don’t win today I am pretty sure that the will be forced to win away because Fiorentina will probably take two wins in their matches against Hungarian Debreceni (at least 4 points).

Liverpool is not going to good in the league either and after loosing against Sunderland with 1 – 0 in Saturday they already have four looses in nine games.

In that match Liverpool rested some of their key players as Fernando Torres, Steven Gerrad and Javier Mascherano against Sunderland after their matches in the world cup qualifications and that they had some feeling of smaller injuries. Mascherano came in against Sunderland, and it looked like Liverpool needs him on the ground to balance their midfield.

I don’t know if Torres and Gerrard are fight for fight again to this game but what I have been reading they should be. And since this game is vital for Liverpool’s future in Champions League I guess that Rafa Benitez will let them play even if they are 80-90% fit.

And the reason that Benitez rested Mascherano was just an safety-think from his side since he was away in South America to take his Argentina to World cup. They were in really bad shape and had to win away against Uruguay. All that pressure was probably to much to put him in the starting squad. So that Mascherano will start in this game against Lyon is not a too hard guess.

Lyon from France have started with two wins out of two matches in Champions League and not only that, they have a great goal difference. They started with 1 – 0 home against Fiorentina and followed up that win with 0 – 4 against Debreceni away and all these goals can be very conclusive in the end.

Lyon is a good side and has proven that for a long time in Champions League. I thought that this years Lyon was a bit weaker then the last few years but they haven’t shown any signs of weakness so far.

I think that Liverpool will come to this match with their motivation on top and if they do they are even the better side compared to Lyon. And the advantage of playing home makes a big difference in Champions League. So I think this is a really good bet and recommend Liverpool as one of the best picks on Tuesdays matches.

My thoughts of the rest of the games:

Fiorentina will travel to Hungary to try to bring home three important points from there. Debreceni is just playing for their honour and some extra cash to the club. Because I cant just see how they can fight for the third place in this group. Of course they can take 1 or 2 points as most and if they do it might come here. But normally Fiorentina wins this game at least 2 out of 3 times. Still there is no value in the odds and I choose not to bet here

Barcelona has started really well both in the Spanish league and in Champions League. Of course they have great chances to win home at Camp Nou against Rubin Kazan. But as usual the odds are adjusted and I can’t motivate to bet on them for 1.11 in payback.

Inter Milan are forced to win after two draws in their first two games and I really think that they will win as well. They beat Genoa with crushing 0 – 5 away in their last league match and Mourinho’s team must win home against Dynamo Kiev. But I saw Kiev´s last game against Barcelona away and they struggled well. So even though I have a strong feeling for Inter Milan 1.40 is just on the edge to bet on.

The odds is picked from Bwin-football

Best Regards

/Amrish