The Used Car Salesman part two
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Suddenly it clicked into place why Walter’s had not played on the much better single zero wheels. It wasn’t because he was a dummy but because there was something wrong with the wheel that he had been playing on. Billy Walters was ruthlessly exploiting what is known as a biased wheel and he was exploiting it to the full.
A biased wheel is one where for whatever reason, the near randomness of the outcome has been interrupted. This can be manufactured by an individual but most of the time it is caused by constant repetitive wear and tear. But the misinformation that was put out by the casino bosses was just another example of them not wanting the truth to be known.
The fact of the matter is that even the best roulette wheels in the world like John Huxley for instance are still subject to that same wear and tear. It is just that certain types of wheels are more susceptible to going wrong than others. The Huxley wheels are without doubt the Rolls Royce’s of the roulette wheel industry but even Roll’s Royce’s break down if they are used often enough.
So why did the casino stand for Walter’s action for so long before calling time. Well firstly no one had ever been hit to that scale before with biased wheel play. Secondly, Walter’s history as being a known big hitter and a losing gambler to boot gave him the perfect cover for his coup. When it became apparent what was happening then it was too late. But when a punter like Billy Walter’s asks to deposit $2,000,000 with you and he gets ahead by $500,000 then do you really want to risk offending him when you perceive that he will lose it all back and the 2 million on top.
As it later turned out, Walters had a team of wheel clockers touring the casino’s in AC doing nothing else but take down numbers. He already had the data at his disposal and all he needed to know was how to interpret the data correctly to see if a bias actually existed. This process of identifying real bias and not imaginary patterns is an area that is not well understood by the casino managers. This is an area where I have worked on over many years and is information that I pass on to any team that is interested in attacking roulette in this way.
Mathematicians have actually calculated that the probability that Walter’s win was purely down to luck as being in the region of 2% which when converted to odds is 49-1. When you couple this statistic with the story about the teams of wheel clockers then you cannot dismiss this as chance. The casinos all over the world in my experience do not properly maintain their wheels. Sure…..some do…..but most don’t.
Carl “The Dean” Sampson
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