Many people have often said that bookmaking is a licence to print money. Well I do not agree with that statement for several reasons and the main one is that bookmaking is a business just like any other and that business depends on people placing bets in sufficient quantity for the bookmaker to meet their overheads and then have enough profit left over to make it a viable concern.

So what this has led to in recent years is an influx of people who are going onto the betting exchanges trying to act as a bookmaker. This is fine to a point but there is far more to bookmaking than meets the eye. I would say that my knowledge of bookmaking is superior to at least 99% of the people who gamble but yet that isn’t high enough for even someone like me to operate on the exchanges as a bookmaker.

There is no doubt that many gamblers are becoming more sophisticated in how they gamble and that can be seen on sites like Racebook for example but the problem is that they are simply making sophisticated mistakes instead of unsophisticated ones. I have known many people personally who were seduced by fancy looking software in the belief that this was some Holy Grail of betting. The latest batch of trading and betting software that interacts with the API of the betting exchanges is one such example of this.

But yet I have been around the gambling industry for a very long time and more than long enough to know that software by itself simply will not do the job properly. Software will really only be of use if it supplements a proven winning method. Take BetAngel for instance what I use, that is a fantastic piece of kit that will help you in your horse racing trading but yet it cannot make you money without an underlying philosophy behind you.

So it is clear then that the betting exchanges are having a huge impact on how punters are betting and even though the average punter is becoming far more knowledgeable and sophisticated, in my view then they are simply making different and more sophisticated mistakes. What this tends to do is leave the punter in a situation where if you were to listen to them speak; they would sound as if they were a really successful punter. This is exactly the same with poker.

But as always the core element is in how much money you are making and most people who can “talk the talk” simply cannot “walk the walk”. So it then becomes clear that taking the next step in sophistication is not the be all and end all if all it does is lead to you making more sophisticated mistakes. This can be linked to someone who trades on stocks and shares to someone who bets on horse racing. One seems more sophisticated than the other but yet is simply making mistakes on a larger scale in what is or seems a more sophisticated environment.

There is usually an old adage in Horse Racing that goes like this “don’t expect a horse to do something that it has never done before”. What this statement actually means deserves some sort of explanation. Usually there are reasons behind why a horse is doing something for the first time. It could be facing a certain type of going for the first time or a certain course for the first time. Maybe it is racing on a right or left handed track for the first time or even wearing blinkers.

Some horses will never have won before but whatever the reason, this can and does have a serious impact on the horse actually winning. This is where you can find good horses worth laying if you can find reasons for them to perform poorly. If you can find several reasons then so much the better. Other factors to take into account are if a horse is travelling a long distance for the first time.

Anything that is new to the horse can impact on its performance and being confined inside a horse box for periods that are far longer than what it has been used to could have a damaging effect. Usually the sensitivity of the betting on the exchanges finds these factors out as a rule and the price adjusts accordingly.

Another huge factor in why horses can perform badly is if they are experiencing a different distance to the one that they normally run at. If a horse has only ever run over 5f and is now running over 6f then this is a question mark against the horse in question. You can often look at the racing history of certain horses to see how they have performed and over what distances. Usually all these factors and more have been taken into consideration by the odds compilers and bookmakers but some manage to slip through the net.

The average horse is far more temperamental than what you think and it can be disturbed for a multitude of reasons and it will not always be visible to the naked eye. The key to all this is to look for reasons as to why the horse may do badly. If you are looking at a horse that is running over a certain distance for the first time then common sense has to be applied here if the horse is still vastly superior in ability to its opponents. You cannot lay a horse simply on this reason and this reason alone as the difference in ability is enough to offset the reason that you are trying to put forward for a poor performance.

Usually when it comes to laying a horse then I look for at least three reasons for a horse not to win and the race to be a competitive one with at least two or three other horses in with a serious shout of winning besides the favourite.

For those who are simply not too into the horse racing scene, greyhound racing is an excellent alternative that can be both fun and highly profitable on race days – provided that you know how to place your wagers accordingly, of course.

Given that greyhound racing relies virtually entirely on the dog itself rather than a human element added to it (as is the case with horse racing requiring the use of jockeys) each wager must be placed based upon careful consideration of the dog and its performance in the particular situation. This means that looking at both the dog’s condition, age and weight in relation to the track that day is all important to consider.

Take, for instance, a track that has recently had a bit of rain come through. The wetter ground and damper atmospheric conditions tend to mean that heavier dogs rather than lighter ones will actually get better traction on the turf and make better time. Conversely in dryer conditions lighter dogs would be better choices.

On the same token, recent wins or losses also need to be considered carefully as they can all play an important role in determining the current condition of the animal. An animal with a strong record but has not run in some time, for instance, may have recently suffered some sort of injury or illness and may not run up to expectations.

Additionally, pay close attention to all original payout ratios. These generally reflect the overall likelihood of the dog winning in the race that day as they are set by highly experienced betting professionals. Those ratios that exist closer towards the actual race time generally reflect the adjusted numbers that vary due to individual bettor interest, so bear this in mind carefully when looking at ratios as a guide as it can mean all the difference in some situations.

The game of baccarat has been around for ages and is the one of the oldest casino game in the world, together with poker, particularly in Asia and amongst big spenders. Trying out baccarat is very intimidating because it seems very complicated and however it is quite an easy game once you understand the basic rules of the game.

Baccarat is a game normally played in a separate room from all the other casino games, the dress code at the table is strictly formal, and the minimum entry fee is very high. The baccarat table is almost similar to that of a craps table in size and shape, the table accommodates three dealers and around 12-14 players. When playing the game the deal rotates around the table so that each player gets a turn however if a player doesn’t want the deal he can pass the shoe to the next player in line. When a deal reaches a player the player can keep dealing for as long as the banker is winning, the player dealing has to place two cards on the table face down take a look at them and then hand them to the dealer, who will turn the cards over and then another dealer will announce the totals. The dealer will then go on to instruct the person dealing the cards to deal a third card, this depends however on the results of the totals, in the end the dealer will pay the winning wagers and collect the losing wagers out of the dealers tray.

Baccarat is a very easy game to learn the rules are quite simple, the only thing that might be confusing and difficult about learning baccarat is that there are many variations of the game which means that you will have to learn the rules for each game if you are to truly become a master of baccarat. In America the version of baccarat that is normally played is known as Chermin de Fer, in Europe they play a different version of baccarat known as En Banque, the American version of baccarat is the moist popular of the two variants and is the one you will find on online casinos that offer baccarat. Chermin de Fer is so popular because it is much simpler two hands are dealt to a player and one to the dealer, this rule remains the same regardless of the number of player at the table.

Blackjack is one of the most popular games in the world for many people to play, yet understanding just why it has risen to popularity in many circles can also help you understand more of the mechanics of the game and help you become more successful as a player no matter where you may wish to get involved.

One of the primary reasons for Blackjack’s long-term success in casinos is its relative ease of play. Following the mantra of “easy to learn, hard to master”, Blackjack allows casino goers to quickly and easily become regular participants in the game and sit side-by-side with seasoned professionals. On top of this, there are a number of different strategies that players can implement both in stand-alone plays and tournaments that can help give them an advantage, meaning that players can develop their own approaches to make their play style truly theirs.

Another major factor that has led to Blackjack being so popular (and is one of the primary reasons why people have invested so much personal time and money into developing their own play strategies) lies in the fact that it is one of the only games available at casinos that can allow them to actually come out ahead of the House if played appropriately. This means that players can maintain positive financial streams without needing to rely upon the investment and subsequent loss of funds from other players (as is the case with Poker).

Finally, Blackjack remains one of the top casino games in the world to date not just because of its financial benefits and ease of play but because of its widespread availability. Virtually, any casino worldwide – both online and offline – will have some form of Blackjack available for players to partake in, meaning it is truly an international game for all to enjoy.

It is time for quarterfinals in the World Cup 2010 in South Africa and now it the interesting part begins.  Eight teams left and the team that wins their next three games will win the World Cup.

So far, this has been South Americas World Cup and they have four teams left out of totally eight. In these two texts I will give you my best bettingtips in the first two matches that is going to be played on Friday between Holland vs. Brazil and Uruguay vs. Ghana.

I will give you the best 1-x-2 tips and then some special bets from each of the matches, starting with Holland vs. Brazil (the odds are picked from bwin sportsbetting odds):

Holland vs. Brasil, odds: Holland to win 3.75, draw 3.45, Brazil to win 1.95

My bettingtips: Draw @ 3.75 in odds

I can agree with bwin that Brazil is favourites in this game, but according to me, they have become way to big favourites in this game. Both Brazil and Holland has impressed a lot on me so far in the championship and 1.95 in odds on Brazil to win during ordinary time doesn’t seem valuable to bet on.

None of these teams has lost in the World Cup so far and both of the teams has impressed with a strong defence.  Neither Brazil nor Holland normally plays with two defensive midfielders but in this tournament both the teams has chosen that solution.

After that, Dunga took over as manager for the Brazilian team they have played more tactical then before and lots of Brazilians are critical for their tactic. But at the same time I don’t think they have a reason to do that since they won both the South American championship and the Confederations Cup last year.

Holland has been well known as the country that plays “total football” which means all of attack and lots of players that runs towards the opponents goal. Anyway, even though they have made it well most of the times they haven’t been able to win any trophy’s at the end when it comes to the final games.

Therefore, this year, even Holland’s manager has chosen to play with two central defensive players in front of their defenders and I have to say that I am impressed of their balanced and focused way of playing. And this is the reason why I think that they can go far in this tourney.

Brazil pays under 2 in odds and I don’t think that they should be that big favourites since Holland have lots of world class players that can make it difficult for the Brazilian attackers. And in the offence I would say that Hollands attacking players (Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder, Robin Van Persie, Rafal Van der Vaart and Dirk Kuyt) are just as good as Brazils attacking players (Robinho, Luis Fabiano, Kaka). Brazil often plays with their wingers high up, putting pressure on their opponents high up. However, with Arjen Robben and Dirk Kuyt on the other side they might get some problems with their counter attacks.

That is why I do not think that Brazil is worth betting on in this game, but draw or a win on Holland is more interesting. I choose to bet on draw here which pays 3.45 in odds and that is interesting according to me.

Uruguay vs. Ghana, odds: Uruguay to win 1.95, draw 3.15, Ghana to win 4.00

My bettingtips: Draw @ 3.15 in odds

I choose to bet on the draw in this game as well. This time I also think even more of a draw than in the previous match. Both Ghana and Uruguay are two strong defensive teams and have done it very well so far in the World cup.

Uruguay is just as big favourites in this game as Brazil are in the first quarterfinal. I think that Ghana will give them a tough battle. Ghana is the last team left from whole Africa in this tournament and that means that whole Africa is behind them in their further adventures in the championship. I am very sure that Ghana will have most of the support from the crowd and that will give them an extra energy boost in this quarterfinal.

An African team has never gone to a semi-final World cup and this time Ghana has a great chance to be the first team ever to reach that far. Senegal (2002) and Cameroon (1990) are the only two teams that have made it to the quarterfinal earlier.

Both these teams have solid defence and a couple of key-players in the offence that will try to win the game for their nation. Uruguay has Diego Forlan (Atletico Madrid) and Luiz Suarez (Ajax) and Ghanas biggest star is Asamoah Gyan (Udinese) after that Michael Essien got is injury.

My feeling is that a draw is a very likely outcome of this game so that is my bettingtips in this game. After that, anything can happen. You can bet draw to 3.15 in odds at bwin and I will give that a try.

More special bets will be presented in the next text for these two matches.

You have my analyze and bettingtips for 1-x-2 in the first two quarterfinals. Now I will do my best to give you some winning bettingtips for the additional bets that bwin world cup betting offers. There are about 315 betting opportunities in the World cup quarterfinals that bwin offers so go in to their website and see if you can find anything else that seems interesting for you.

Holland vs. Brazil:

Team to go trough – odds: Holland to go trough, odds 2.75 – Brazil to go trough, odds 1.42

My bettingtips – Holland to go trough @ 2.75 in odds

As I wrote above, I think that Brazil is to big favourites to bet on. In addition, in this bet I think that it is even more obvious. This bet means that I bet on Holland to go trough. It does not matter if they win during 90 minutes; win after extra time of even after Penalties. They just have to go to the semi-finals for me to win on my bettingtips.

Since I think that it is much more even between the teams then the odds says, I think that this is a really good bet.

Holland have won all their four matches until now and they have done it in an impressing way. In their first game they beat Denmark with 2 – 0. In that game they had several chances to score more then twice but they seemed satisfied anyway. After that they beat Japan with 1 – 0 and in their last game they won against Cameroon with 2 – 1 even though they actually didn’t have to win to win their group.

And in the first knock-out game Holland beat Slovakia with 2 – 1 after a late goal from Slovakia on penalty. So Holland has never been really threatened in this championship so far. Brazil have three wins and one draw so far but it’s actually only against Chilli, in the last game, that they showed that they can play attractive football. I think that 2.75 in odds on Holland to go to the semi-finals feels very interesting and with a great odds-value, so that’s my first pick.

Over / Under 1,5 goals after first half – Over 1,5 goals, odds 3.10 – Under 1,5 goals, odds 1.33

My bettingtips: Under 1,5 goals in first half @ 1.33 in odds

My feeling is that this game will start in a slow tempo. Both of the teams respect each other’s and that is why I do not think that there will be too many goals in the first half. For my bet, I win if the first half ends with zero or one goal.

In most of the games so far in the World cup is hasn’t been scored more then 1 goal in first half and this is the kind of match where I think that will be standing 0 – 0 for a while. Holland made both their goals against Denmark in the second half and even their goal against Japan came in the second half. Against Cameroon they only had 1 – 0 in half time and the same against Slovakia. So all Holland’s four matches has been under 1,5 goals after the first half.

Regarding Brazil they had 0 – 0 against North Korea in half time, 1 – 0 against Ivory coast and in their last group match they played 0 – 0 against Portugal. It was only against Chilli that they had 2 – 0 in half time.

So in totally eight games that these teams has played so far only in one match it has been scored more then 1 goal in the first half. Now, when it comes to a tight and tough quarterfinal, I think that the probability to be under 1,5 goals in half time is bigger than 1.33 that is the odds. So I have a strong feeling that this is a good bettingtips even though it might feel like a low odds.

Uruguay vs. Ghana

Over / Under 2,5 goals in the match – Odds: over 2,5 goals, odds: 2.45 – Under 2,5 goals, odds: 1.48

My bettingtips: Under 2,5 goals @ 1.48 in odds

I do not think that their will be too many of goals in this game. Both the teams have strong defences. In Uruguay’s there games in their group games they did not let any goals in. Their first goal against them came in the second round when South Korea finally managed to score one goal on Uruguay.

Ghana has indeed let some goals in behind their goalie Kingson but they still have showed that they have a strong defence as well. With that in mind, I feel that there is big opportunity that this game will end with two goals or less after ordinary time (90 min).

If feels strange to see that as an opportunity, but in the betting world right can be wrong and a defensive game with few goals can mean win. Under 2,5 goals pays 1.48 in odds at bwin sportsbetting and I think that 0 – 0 or 1 – 1 are the most likely results here. If any of the teams win the game I do not think that it will be with more then 1 – 0 / 0 – 1.

Good Luck with your world cup betting

/Amrish

The way that the betting exchanges tout their product is that it is matched betting and that you are pitting your opinion against that of someone else. So it is your knowledge of sport or a sporting event or person against that of someone else. In a sort of loose fitting way then this is true. However the vast amount of liquidity on the exchanges these days is stemming from outside institutions, bookmakers and traders.

Skilled financial day traders have an edge on the exchanges because they are trained in their profession. But yet as a punter then you really shouldn’t be taking these people head on anyway. As a rule then the bookmakers use exchanges to hedge their own offline betting activities but they also back and lay for other reasons as well. However there are many institutions who are operating on the exchanges so you never really get access to individual money in the way that it is touted because the money is pooled.

However there are ways to circumvent this problem and trader and institutional activity may account for a large amount of liquidity in certain markets. But traders rarely understand tissue prices and what represents value and are mainly operating around their own individual strategies. What this means is that betting prices often oscillate either side of what are optimum pricing levels.

So it is possible to find very good value on the betting exchanges but it takes patience to wait and a good tissue price at hand that has a proven track record of accuracy within a few percentage points. The older strategies of using weight of money indicators have long since been dead in the water and I never really thought that they would work anyway as they were too well known. Trying to ascertain short term market movement is difficult because there is a tremendous amount of short term noise and manipulation of the markets from some very powerful sources.

However there is a difference between short term movement and longer term movement as in my opinion, it is easier to find longer term movement than short term movement on the exchanges these days. The bigger markets of Horse Racing and football are where the greatest liquidity is found and this is where the greatest outside influences can be found. In my view then it is important to elongate the trading process so that you can get away from traders and institutions who are driving prices in a certain direction based on their own short term strategies. It then becomes very hard to predict when and how far these people will drive the price short term and trying to follow them becomes difficult.

So one of the keys to making money on the exchanges is to highlight who you are going up against and what they are doing. If you can do that and then get your hands on a good tissue that accurately assesses true chances of winning then that is a very good start.

In all forms of gambling, the lure of winning immediate money is strong and in a roundabout way, this desire and fear of losing is what drives the betting industry to a large extent. People do not like losing money, they like winning money…..that much is obvious. But yet this desire of winning and fear of losing become so polarised that the punter ends up taking these two points to an extreme and their betting strategy and habits are formed around these emotions.

In poker, many players like winning quick easy pots and do not value bet decent hands when they should mainly through fear. These emotions are prevalent in Horse Race betting too but the bookmakers know that it exists and exploit it. This is why the majority of punters back the horses at the top end of the market. They do not want to back middling to high priced horses because even though the pay-off is high relative to stakes, the chances of winning are slim at best.

So the first and second favourite in the betting becomes the target for many punters. This is just as well because the first and second favourites tend to be the horses with the greatest chance of winning. Because they have the greatest chance of winning then these two horses satisfy what the majority of the betting public crave and that is to have immediate success by way of winners and to avoid the pain of losing money. So in a way these factors feed on themselves but the effect is that because so many of the betting public want to back such horses then the prices can become shorter as a result.

This can lead the first and second favourites to be poor value if the price gets contracted in this way. But if you look at this situation for a minute then this not only highlights why amateur punters lose money but it also shows how professionals win money. If the favourites and second favourites are becoming poor value because the mass of the betting public is supporting them then by sheer definition, there must be value elsewhere in the market.

The amateurs are being seduced and shackled by their own greed and fear and it is greed and fear which drives the betting market. Even money favourites will win around 50% of the time but yet their true winning ratio will be less than that as the price of evens will more than likely be shorter than what it should be. But even though a punter is backing at Evens when the true price should be at least 5-4 or 11/8 does not deter them because when it wins a high percentage of the time, it feeds their desire for winners and fends off their fear of losing. The end result in all of this is a long and slow steady drip feeding of money into the hands of the bookmakers but as long as punters are greedy and fearful then it will continue to happen.

For the novice horse racing punter then it can be difficult to identify which horses belong in which class at first glance. In other sports like football then it is far easier to see the difference in class. Most professional teams play in leagues so in cup competitions where teams from different leagues compete against each other then the difference in class is obvious. It is also obvious in horse racing of course although less so to the novice. So when analysing form then one of the most important factors is in if your horse has shown any sort of proof whatsoever that it can win in the class of race that it is about to take part in.

Often a major question must be placed at the side of a horse that is moving up in class for the first time. In a way this is a trip into the unknown until further evidence becomes available. Often though the rise in class is justified and the horse often performs well in the next category up. Once again the analogy with football is clear as football teams in the lower leagues who have been promoted have also done well in the next league up and many times teams have recorded back to back promotions in successive seasons.

To help any novice to further understand a new sport when it comes to betting on horses then it always helps to make analogies with other sports and I always try to do this with my articles. To really immerse yourself in the complexities of form then I advise you to seek out a form book like Raceform for example.

However this can be very long winded and there are just far too many races in an average racing day in the UK and most other countries like Germany, Ireland and France for a bettor to be able to follow and analyse them all. Another option to short cut this process is to use an automated rating service or computer program that does this for you. There are also some good services out there that offer ratings as well for cheap prices and subscriptions to magazines like Smartsig and SmarterSig can become a good investment for those who are looking to break into betting on horses.

There are basically two ways to get good ratings and the first is to manually do this yourself the hard way or to develop a computer program to do this for you. Developing a program requires expert knowledge in its own right so that will not be an option either for the vast majority of novice punters. So short cutting the process and finding good reliable and accurate ratings without doing the necessary leg work then becomes a necessity.

There are numerous ratings systems that you can pay for but you need to be aware of a few things first. You need to know if the system has any track record that can be checked and also how expensive the ratings are. You can get your hands on good ratings these days for no more than $30/month which is basically nothing compared to the amount of time that you would need to put in manually doing this yourself.