One may be forgiven for thinking that this years US Open mens singles event will be another cake walk for the Swiss phenom, Roger Federer. Having won the past five US Opens, Federer is on course to make it a sixth straight title which is something that hasn’t been achieved at Flushing Meadow since Bill Tilden in the 1920’s.
But is Federer value at a current 1.70 or should we be looking further down the pecking order this year? One has to remember that Andy Roddick has won here before and before you start to write off his chances, he came within a whisker of winning Wimbledon and probably should have finished Federer off in the fifth set tie break.
Roddick at a current price of 20.00 seems the stand out value of the tournament to me and is my pick at that price. He is a totally transformed player under new coach Larry Stefanki and anyone who can come as close as he did to beating Federer on grass has my vote. Roddick seems content with both his game and his personal life these days and I was very surprised to see him at that price.
At any other stage, Rafael Nadal would be exceptional value at 5.10 but there are question marks against his name these days. Forced to miss Wimbledon due to his troublesome knee then this will probably be a slam too soon for the energetic Spaniard. In fact surpassing Federer’s total number of slams which at one stage looked a certainty may now take some doing if the Spaniards career is to be plagued by injuries.
Also Nadal has yet to even reach a US Open final even when he was at his peak so it seems too much to ask in this years event and laying Nadal may just be the value here. The really interesting one is Andy Murray, a finalist last year and now the new world number two, he has still to break his duck in a slam event.
He has the game to win a slam and it seems only a matter of time before he wins one but will it be the 2009 US Open? At a current price of 5.00, it is hard to say whether that represents value or not as he still has the psychological barrier of not winning a slam to overcome. With the rebirth of Roddick as a major force then his path to winning will be tougher this year although how much of that is offset by the fact that Nadal is not at his peak and Federer is another year older?
Novak Djokovic, a finalist in 2007 could be an interesting bet at 12.00. He also put up a great showing last year beating Roddick in the quarter-finals only losing in four sets to Federer in the semi-finals so the indications are that Djokovic has the game to win this. A less than fully fit Nadal and a player in Andy Murray who has still to win a slam and Novak Djokovic could just slip through the net this year and take the title.
As always of course, the main focus will be on the big three in Federer, Murray and Nadal. Murray has been winning titles consistently but still has to break his grand slam duck. The question is “how long can Roger Federer still keep at the top of his game?”
There are not many players who can stay at the top of the mens game at thirty years of age and Federer is fast approaching that age. It is hard to see Novak Djokovic only ending his career with one slam and if the price of Roger Federer at 1.70 doesn’t ignite your passions, then a punt on Djokovic or Andy Roddick just might.
By Carl “The Dean” Sampson
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