In all forms of gambling, the lure of winning immediate money is strong and in a roundabout way, this desire and fear of losing is what drives the betting industry to a large extent. People do not like losing money, they like winning money…..that much is obvious. But yet this desire of winning and fear of losing become so polarised that the punter ends up taking these two points to an extreme and their betting strategy and habits are formed around these emotions.
In poker, many players like winning quick easy pots and do not value bet decent hands when they should mainly through fear. These emotions are prevalent in Horse Race betting too but the bookmakers know that it exists and exploit it. This is why the majority of punters back the horses at the top end of the market. They do not want to back middling to high priced horses because even though the pay-off is high relative to stakes, the chances of winning are slim at best.
So the first and second favourite in the betting becomes the target for many punters. This is just as well because the first and second favourites tend to be the horses with the greatest chance of winning. Because they have the greatest chance of winning then these two horses satisfy what the majority of the betting public crave and that is to have immediate success by way of winners and to avoid the pain of losing money. So in a way these factors feed on themselves but the effect is that because so many of the betting public want to back such horses then the prices can become shorter as a result.
This can lead the first and second favourites to be poor value if the price gets contracted in this way. But if you look at this situation for a minute then this not only highlights why amateur punters lose money but it also shows how professionals win money. If the favourites and second favourites are becoming poor value because the mass of the betting public is supporting them then by sheer definition, there must be value elsewhere in the market.
The amateurs are being seduced and shackled by their own greed and fear and it is greed and fear which drives the betting market. Even money favourites will win around 50% of the time but yet their true winning ratio will be less than that as the price of evens will more than likely be shorter than what it should be. But even though a punter is backing at Evens when the true price should be at least 5-4 or 11/8 does not deter them because when it wins a high percentage of the time, it feeds their desire for winners and fends off their fear of losing. The end result in all of this is a long and slow steady drip feeding of money into the hands of the bookmakers but as long as punters are greedy and fearful then it will continue to happen.
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