The way that the betting exchanges tout their product is that it is matched betting and that you are pitting your opinion against that of someone else. So it is your knowledge of sport or a sporting event or person against that of someone else. In a sort of loose fitting way then this is true. However the vast amount of liquidity on the exchanges these days is stemming from outside institutions, bookmakers and traders.

Skilled financial day traders have an edge on the exchanges because they are trained in their profession. But yet as a punter then you really shouldn’t be taking these people head on anyway. As a rule then the bookmakers use exchanges to hedge their own offline betting activities but they also back and lay for other reasons as well. However there are many institutions who are operating on the exchanges so you never really get access to individual money in the way that it is touted because the money is pooled.

However there are ways to circumvent this problem and trader and institutional activity may account for a large amount of liquidity in certain markets. But traders rarely understand tissue prices and what represents value and are mainly operating around their own individual strategies. What this means is that betting prices often oscillate either side of what are optimum pricing levels.

So it is possible to find very good value on the betting exchanges but it takes patience to wait and a good tissue price at hand that has a proven track record of accuracy within a few percentage points. The older strategies of using weight of money indicators have long since been dead in the water and I never really thought that they would work anyway as they were too well known. Trying to ascertain short term market movement is difficult because there is a tremendous amount of short term noise and manipulation of the markets from some very powerful sources.

However there is a difference between short term movement and longer term movement as in my opinion, it is easier to find longer term movement than short term movement on the exchanges these days. The bigger markets of Horse Racing and football are where the greatest liquidity is found and this is where the greatest outside influences can be found. In my view then it is important to elongate the trading process so that you can get away from traders and institutions who are driving prices in a certain direction based on their own short term strategies. It then becomes very hard to predict when and how far these people will drive the price short term and trying to follow them becomes difficult.

So one of the keys to making money on the exchanges is to highlight who you are going up against and what they are doing. If you can do that and then get your hands on a good tissue that accurately assesses true chances of winning then that is a very good start.

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