There is usually an old adage in Horse Racing that goes like this “don’t expect a horse to do something that it has never done before”. What this statement actually means deserves some sort of explanation. Usually there are reasons behind why a horse is doing something for the first time. It could be facing a certain type of going for the first time or a certain course for the first time. Maybe it is racing on a right or left handed track for the first time or even wearing blinkers.
Some horses will never have won before but whatever the reason, this can and does have a serious impact on the horse actually winning. This is where you can find good horses worth laying if you can find reasons for them to perform poorly. If you can find several reasons then so much the better. Other factors to take into account are if a horse is travelling a long distance for the first time.
Anything that is new to the horse can impact on its performance and being confined inside a horse box for periods that are far longer than what it has been used to could have a damaging effect. Usually the sensitivity of the betting on the exchanges finds these factors out as a rule and the price adjusts accordingly.
Another huge factor in why horses can perform badly is if they are experiencing a different distance to the one that they normally run at. If a horse has only ever run over 5f and is now running over 6f then this is a question mark against the horse in question. You can often look at the racing history of certain horses to see how they have performed and over what distances. Usually all these factors and more have been taken into consideration by the odds compilers and bookmakers but some manage to slip through the net.
The average horse is far more temperamental than what you think and it can be disturbed for a multitude of reasons and it will not always be visible to the naked eye. The key to all this is to look for reasons as to why the horse may do badly. If you are looking at a horse that is running over a certain distance for the first time then common sense has to be applied here if the horse is still vastly superior in ability to its opponents. You cannot lay a horse simply on this reason and this reason alone as the difference in ability is enough to offset the reason that you are trying to put forward for a poor performance.
Usually when it comes to laying a horse then I look for at least three reasons for a horse not to win and the race to be a competitive one with at least two or three other horses in with a serious shout of winning besides the favourite.
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