Before June 1st the UK must have a general election to decide which party leads the country for the next parliamentary term. Political betting can be an effective path to profit for those who enjoy reading the political updates in the newspapers and predicting the countries mood for change and voting preferences.
Gordon Brown was almost challenged for his leadership last week when Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt, two former front bench politicians sent an email to all MP’s then going public with a call for unity by having a secret ballot to definitively decide whether the party believe Gordon Brown is the right leader. This is not the first time Brown has faced calls for his resignation and was said to be in real danger when James Purnell resigned in 2009. Having survived the latest coup after cabinet members (rather lukewarmly) supported Mr Brown, the question for political bettors is, has this affected the chances of a Labour party majority at the general election?
The general election odds from bwin suggests not. They have the Conservative party very heavy favourites at 1.07, with the Labour Party in second place at odds of 7.00. The Liberal Democrats, who realistically have a very small chance of victory, have odds of 67.00. These odds are for the political parties to gain an overall majority. The media and many commentators have also raised the possibility that there will be a hung parliament and no party with one overall majority.
There are also odds offered by bwin on whether there will be an overall majority. They are favouring a Conservative victory and bwin are offering odds of 1.20 for an overall majority (this can be for any party as the bet is successful as long as there is a majority at all).
Without doubt this is the closest election for many years, probably since 1992 when John Major of the Conservatives was elected after beating the favourite Neil Kinnock of the Labour Party to 10 Downing Street. The subsequent Labour victories in 1997, 2001 and 2005 were all expected and no great surprise to anyone. The majority Labour holds has been falling and the last few years very difficult from a political perspective and perhaps this will be the moment where the country decides on change and votes the Conservatives back to power. The polls suggest this is a real possibility, although they have been wrong before.
In my opinion political betting fans who are looking to make a bet must to look at Labours odds of 7.00 for any value as odds of 1.07 for a Conservative win are too short to hold any value. The bookmakers have obviously taken a large amount for a Conservative victory already and are looking to balance their book. Considering the Tories have not yet been lauded by the majority of the media as the right choice (think back to Blair in 1997) it is correct to say the election result is still in the balance. This makes the Labour odds of 7.00 look a bit more appetising.
Even a Labour supporter like me has to concede that a Conservative victory has been there for the taking. Internal leadership struggles, the economic downturn, the failure to lift the country out of recession and announce any real plans for the obvious spending cuts to reduce the countries deficit have dealt blows to Labours election victory chances. Yet many still believe they still have a chance to win which to me shows that the Conservatives have failed to show they are a credible alternative to run the country.
Many voters are still bitter about some of the Conservative mistakes of the John Major reign. David Cameron has also made some strange statements in an effort to be PR friendly which has backfired.
Even if Labour are re-elected thanks to their oppositions ineffective campaigning and credibility that would still mean a win for Labour supporters in the betting market. Your task before you bet is to decide whether you believe Labour can really win or whether the 1.07 for a Conservative victory is sensible foresight.
By Malcolm Clarke
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